Week 18 sema update, 22 lb down and what the weekly average kept hiding

Quick journal entry, mostly for my own future reference but happy if it helps anyone in the same window. Compounded semaglutide, no polysorbate 80, started in early January at 204 lb. I’m 5’6, 34, two kids, sixth grade science teacher so my standing-up time is fixed and high. Currently 0.5mg weekly, week 18, sitting at 182. Down 22 lb over roughly four months. The main thing I want to flag for anyone still in the early weeks is that the weekly average is genuinely hiding the curve. My week 6-10 scale reading looked like a stall. I was logging 1.2 to 1.8 lb a week off, then suddenly nothing for almost three weeks. What was actually happening, and I only caught it on the tape, was that my waistband kept loosening. Two cm off the waist between week 7 and week 10 with the scale flat. My read is glycogen and water rebounding while fat kept coming off underneath. If I’d only had the scale I’d have assumed the dose stopped working and bumped up early. Other markers worth naming because they don’t show up on a readout: Knees. Going up to my second-floor classroom used to mean a click and a dull ache by third period. That quietly stopped somewhere around week 13. I didn’t notice until a colleague asked why I wasn’t taking the lift anymore. Food noise. Scoring it 1 to 10 daily with a journal note tied to each entry. Started at a 7-8 baseline, dropped to a 3 around week 4, then the pattern emerged: days 5-6 post-injection drop hardest, sometimes a 1. The number alone isn’t the signal, the journal note is what makes a 4 on day 3 read differently from a 4 on day 6. Fatigue. Weeks 12-16 were brutal. Bricks-on-chest tired. I nearly quit. Week 17 something flipped, more protein, actual sleep, fog lifted. I don’t fully understand why but enough people in my window describe the same arc that I think it’s a real phase, not a personal failing. What I’m working on now is holding a 130g protein floor through the 48-72hr post-injection window before peak suppression makes it unappealing, plus strength twice a week. For anyone in the week 6-10 scale stall: please get a tape measure. Anyone else find their tape and scale told completely different stories early on?

the tape-vs-scale split in weeks 7-10 is almost always glycogen flux, and you read it correctly - scale can sit flat for 2-3 weeks while fat loss is still running underneath, which is exactly why early dose bumps in that window usually add side effects more than momentum. the food noise journal note alongside the score is smart too - a 4 on day 3 and a 4 on day 6 are genuinely different signals and most people only log the number.

the glycogen-flux read holds for me but I’d add the caveat that the curve doesn’t always resolve in 2-3 weeks. mine was closer to 3.5, and a friend at a different starting BMI sat flat 5 weeks before the tape caught up. so for anyone tracking: the tape-scale split is the signal, but the timing of resolution varies more than the typical “give it 3 weeks” advice suggests. cycle phase muddies it further if you’re still cycling, which trial populations don’t always stratify on.

“trial populations don’t always stratify on cycle phase” is doing a lot of quiet work in that sentence and deserves more attention than it usually gets. Luteal phase water retention runs roughly 1-3 lb above follicular baseline for most cycling people, and if that window happens to land during the glycogen rebound weeks, you’re stacking two separate fluid mechanisms on top of each other with no way to tell them apart from the scale alone. Someone cycling normally could sit 6-7 weeks of flat readings and have no idea there were two things running concurrently, not one. The starting BMI affecting resolution timing also tracks from a body composition standpoint, since glycogen stores scale with lean mass.

I’m tracking food noise the messier way (journal notes after eating) and watching it swing post-injection confirms what you’re saying: a single number is basically useless without context. Day 4 I can smell Mei’s lunch from across the room and feel nothing. Day 2, the fridge opens and I’m already thinking abt it. The fatigue arc resonates hard because I’m already running on basically no sleep (toddler, injection timing cortisol swings), so weeks 12-16 just felt like “you broke your body” rather than “this is a real phase.” But yeah, enough people describe that exact arc that it can’t be random. More protein helped mine too, though hitting 130g while pumping is a lot. The tape measure thing would have saved me form a panic bump at week 9. I’m genuinely scared of seeing a flat scale

the tape vs scale thing i completely agree with, been there, waistband telling a completely different story than the number for almost three weeks. the caveat i’d add: “glycogen and water rebounding while fat kept coming off” is probably right directionally but it’s doing a lot of explanatory work for what might also be fluid retention from increased cortisol during that fatigue window you described in weeks 12-16. the mechanisms aren’t mutually exclusive, just worth not collapsing them into one clean narrative. fwiw tracking both simultaneously is the actual signal.

the tape-versus-scale split you described is exactly what people skip and then spiral on. the part about “the journal note is what makes a 4 read differently from a 4” is the real insight here, not the number itself. one thing i’d watch though: the week 12-16 fatigue arc you mentioned hit me harder when protein was actually lower than i thought it was, not just low. logging grams vs. estimating made a real difference.

the fatigue window you described, “weeks 12-16 brutal, week 17 something flipped,” tracks with what i hear anecdotally pretty often in that range.

the protein floor thing is probably doing real work there, not just coincidence. caveat though: “days 5-6 post-injection drop hardest” for food noise is worth flagging to your prescriber if you haven’t, bc that timing pattern can mean the dose is burning off faster than it should, which has implications beyond just hunger scoring. not saying that’s what’s happening, just that the trough behavior is worth naming out loud to someone with your labs in front of them. the journal context you’re already keeping makes that conversation way easier to have.

“two cm off the waist w/ the scale flat” - lived that exact thing around weeks 7-9 and came genuinely close to bumping my dose early bc the number looked terminal. The glycogen/water read is probably right, though i’d add localized fluid from the injection site itself (especially subq) as additional scale noise that’s mechanistically separate from the glycogen story, and the two get conflated a lot. Where i’d actually push back: “holding a 130g protein floor through the 48-72hr post-injection window before peak suppression makes it unappealing” - that framing kind of inverts the actual problem. fwiw Injection day through the following 24hrs IS peak suppression, so it’s also when 40g of chicken sounds genuinely awful, not just unappealing. The MPS signaling conflict is real - the window where your muscles most need protein input is the same window where eating it is hardest. fwiw i’ve had better results front-loading protein in the 24hrs before injection rather than trying to push through when GI suppression is at its worst