Does pacing actually prevent flares or just smooth them out

been trying to track whether pacing actually prevents flares or just redistributes the fatigue. when i log my flares + what triggered them, i can’t find a clear pattern where “good pacing days” means fewer bad days later. some weeks i’m careful, rest on the right days, and still get flattened.

other weeks i’m less careful and nothing happens. makes me wonder if it’s more about lesion load that week than how hard i’m being on myself. which sounds defeatist, but also - maybe pacing isn’t about preventing flares so much as not making an existing flare worse?

for people who’ve been doing this longer: has pacing actually changed when your flares happen, or are you pacing mainly to not make things worse?