Does heart rate actually predict when to rest?

so i’ve tracked crashes for mos now - there’s a consistent 3-4 day lag that’s reliable. started adding resting heart rate to see if i could spot the warning earlier. and like, it does move before a crash, but not always enough time to actually prevent it.

sometimes my HR ticks up and i get two days of warning. other times the crash just shows up and my HR had no idea. wondering if people track different things that work better?

like, is there a marker that actually catches PEM before the 48-hour window closes, or is everyone pretty much guessing too?