Does correlating flares with triggers even work for autoimmune stuff?

ngl i struggle figuring out if the pattern i’m seeing actually means anything by the time i get to a specialist. last month my anti-dsdna was up, and joint pain was bad, but when i look back at what happened two weeks before… it just seems like so many things were happening. was it even stress? or maybe low iron bck from avoiding all that cold weather? knowing the actual numbers (like complement) is one thing, but connecting those changes to a specific trigger feels impossible sometimes. imo am i overthinking this entire whole correlation process?